With 64 Active Research Vessels, 16 Deep-Sea Geological Expeditions, and Billions Invested in Mapping the Global Ocean, China is Building the Capability to Dominate the Largest Last Frontier on Earth
Amanda Van Dyke
For much of the past decade, the public imagination has been captured by space.
Elon Musk wants to colonise Mars.
Governments discuss lunar mining.
Investors talk about asteroid resources.
Entire industries have emerged around the idea that humanity’s next frontier lies beyond Earth’s atmosphere.
But from a purely economic perspective, this may be the wrong frontier.
The deep ocean is not hypothetical.
It already exists.
It already contains enormous quantities of resources.
It already hosts critical infrastructure.
It already determines military power.
And unlike Mars or asteroids, it sits directly beneath our feet.
The reality is that no civilisation will build large-scale mining operations on asteroids before it learns how to systematically operate across the ocean floor.
The next frontier is not 225 million kilometres away.
It is five kilometres beneath the surface of our own planet.
We Talk About Satellites. The World Runs On Cables.
Space receives the headlines.
But it is the ocean carries more data that space has ever dreamed of.
There is a common misconception that satellites now dominate global communications.
They do not.
Even if Starlink were to quadruple in size and grow from roughly 2% of global internet traffic to 8%, more than 90% of global data would still travel through subsea cables.
The modern economy depends on a 2million km long network of approximately 600 undersea cables carrying:
financial transactions;
internet traffic;
cloud computing;
military communications;
AI data flows.
Without them, global commerce would grind to a halt.
Every major technology company depends on them.
Every financial market depends on them.
Every modern military depends on them.
The information age is not built on satellites.
It is built on the seabed.
The Largest Energy Province On Earth
When most people think about the deep ocean, they think about minerals.
But hydrocarbons remain enormously important.
Today roughly one-third of global oil production already comes from offshore fields.
Many of the world’s largest undeveloped petroleum resources lie offshore.
Brazil.
Guyana.
Norway.
The Gulf of Mexico.
West Africa.
The Eastern Mediterranean.
The Arctic.
Future discoveries are increasingly likely to come from deeper waters.
The deep ocean is not merely the next mineral frontier.
It is one of the world’s most important energy frontiers.
The Forgotten Geography Of Power
History’s great powers were rarely land powers first.
They were maritime powers.
The Portuguese.
The Dutch.
The British.
The Americans.
Control of the oceans enabled:
trade;
resource access;
military projection;
industrial expansion.
The sea has always been the operating system of global power.
This is why Chinese interest in oceanography deserves more attention.
Because every empire for the last 100 years has been a maritime one, and began with understanding the sea.
Maps came first. Ships came second. Power followed.
The New Great Game Is Already Underway
China and Russia are conducting some of the most extensive seabed mapping efforts in modern history.
Officially, these missions are scientific.
Many undoubtedly are.
But throughout history, scientific exploration and strategic competition have often advanced together.
The same survey data that identifies mineral deposits can support submarine operations.
The same oceanographic measurements that support climate research can support anti-submarine warfare.
The same seabed maps that help lay cables can help locate them.
Or cut them.
The distinction between civilian and strategic capability becomes increasingly blurred beneath the ocean.
Why Greenland Matters
This is one reason Greenland has become so strategically important.
Much of the public discussion focuses on rare earths.
But the deeper issue is geography.
Greenland sits astride one of the most important maritime approaches to North America.
The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap has been one of NATO’s most important naval chokepoints since the Cold War.
Any Russian submarine entering the Atlantic must pass through or around it.
Control and monitoring of these routes remains essential to North American security.
As Arctic ice retreats and northern sea routes become more accessible, the strategic importance of this region is likely to increase rather than diminish.
The deep ocean surrounding Greenland is therefore not simply a resource story.
It is a security story.
China Isn’t Just Building A Deep-Sea Mining Industry. It’s Mapping The Next Frontier Of Human Power.
For most of human history, power followed maps.
The Portuguese mapped the sea lanes.
The Spanish mapped the Americas.
The British mapped the world.
The Americans mapped the skies and eventually space.
Today, China is mapping the deep ocean.
And I suspect most people still fail to understand what that means.
Because this is not really about deep-sea mining or critical minerals.
It is about the largest unexplored territory left on Earth.
The Last Unclaimed Frontier
Roughly 70% of our planet is covered by ocean.
Yet the overwhelming majority of humanity’s economic activity occurs on a tiny fraction of its surface.
Beneath those oceans lies a realm larger than all continents combined.
Much of it remains poorly understood.
It is almost impossible to surveil or monitor.
Vast regions of the abyssal plains, mid-ocean ridges, fracture zones and hadal trenches remain less thoroughly mapped than parts of the Moon.
Critically, almost half of the Earth’s surface lies beyond the jurisdiction of any nation state.
No sovereign government controls it.
No army occupies it.
No permanent population inhabits it.
From a geopolitical perspective, this is extraordinary.
For the first time since the colonial era, there exists a frontier of global significance that remains largely unconquered.
China Appears to Understand This
Western discussion of the deep ocean is almost entirely focused on whether deep-sea mining should happen.
China’s discussion appears very different.
China is systematically building the capability required to understand, access and eventually operate throughout the deep ocean.
The evidence is becoming difficult to ignore.
According to CSIS, China now operates the world’s largest fleet of civilian research vessels.
Researchers identified 64 full time active Chinese survey and research vessels conducting operations across the globe. More than 80% exhibited behaviours, affiliations or activities suggesting strategic value beyond purely civilian science.
The scale is remarkable.
Chinese survey vessels are active throughout:
the South China Sea;
the Western Pacific;
the Indian Ocean;
the Arctic;
the Southern Ocean.
This is not regional science.
This is global mapping.
The New Cartographers
Recent reporting from Reuters suggests China is conducting one of the largest ocean mapping programmes in modern history.
Researchers examined more than five years of activity from dozens of Chinese research vessels operating across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic Oceans.
The vessels repeatedly sailed precise grid patterns characteristic of detailed seabed mapping and oceanographic surveys. Naval analysts noted that the resulting datasets would be invaluable for future submarine operations and underwater warfare.
This should not surprise us.
You cannot dominate an environment you do not understand.
Before navies project power, they map.
Before miners extract resources, they survey.
Before cables are laid, the seabed is characterised.
Before submarines hide, someone studies the ocean’s acoustic properties.
Knowledge always comes first.
China Has Built The World’s Largest Full-Ocean-Depth Exploration Programme
China’s two flagship manned submersibles alone have accumulated remarkable operational experience.
Jiaolong has completed 317 dives and supported roughly 900 deep-sea descents since 2009.
Fendouzhe (Striver) has completed 329 dives, including 25 dives below 10,000 metres, more than any other nation’s full-ocean-depth programme according to Chinese sources.
Fendouzhe can reach 10,909 metres, effectively the entire depth of the world’s oceans.
While Western nations conduct occasional flagship expeditions, China has spent the last fifteen years industrialising deep-sea exploration.
China Has Moved Beyond Exploration Into Persistent Presence
One-off dives are impressive.
Persistent capability is more important.
China now operates:
multiple dedicated deep-ocean research fleets;
specialised survey vessels;
full-ocean-depth submersibles;
deep-sea ROVs;
seabed observatories;
deep-sea drilling capability;
autonomous underwater systems.
The strategic distinction is important:
The United States can reach the deep ocean.
China is building the ability to operate there continuously.
The Electromagnetic Mapping Breakthrough Is Bigger Than Most People Realise
The recent Haiyang Dizhi-6 expedition may be one of the most important developments.
China completed sea trials of what Chinese sources describe as:
the world’s first full-ocean-depth (10,000-metre-class) electromagnetic acquisition station and offshore operating system.
Why this matters:
Traditional seabed mapping mostly tells you:
shape of the seabed;
bathymetry;
physical features.
Electromagnetic surveying tells you:
electrical conductivity;
rock composition;
buried geological structures;
fluid pathways;
hydrothermal systems;
mineralised zones;
potential hydrocarbon accumulations.
In simple terms:
Sonar tells you what the seabed looks like.
Electromagnetic systems tell you what is hidden beneath it.
The fact that China is now deploying such systems at 7,700-10,000 metre depths is strategically significant because it allows them to map resources and geology that many nations cannot even physically access.
And they wouldn’t be mapping it if they didn’t have a plan for mining it.
China Is Mapping The Hadal Zone While Most Nations Are Barely Studying It
The deepest parts of the oceans are known as the hadal zone.
Very few countries can routinely access them.
China’s recent expedition specifically highlighted research into:
abyssal rift systems;
hadal-zone Earth systems;
ultra-deep geological structures.
Most countries still regard these regions as scientific curiosities.
China increasingly appears to view them as future operating environments.
The Mineral Resource Prize
Of course mineral resources matter. There is an uncomfortable reality that I mapped out in the Mineral Imperative.
We have severely deteriorated the resources available on land, grades are less than half of what they were 25 years ago, yet in the next 25 years we need to mine 3x minimum what we did in the last 25.
The seabed contains:
polymetallic nodules;
cobalt-rich crusts;
massive sulphides;
rare earth-bearing sediments.
Collectively these may represent one of the largest untapped concentrations of strategic materials on Earth.
China already dominates much of today’s mineral supply chain.
The logical next step is securing influence over tomorrow’s.
Viewed through this lens, deep-sea mining begins to look less like an environmental debate and more like a continuation of China’s long-term resource strategy.
The Resources are only half the Prize, the Naval Prize is the other half
The same datasets useful for mining are useful for:
submarine navigation;
anti-submarine warfare;
cable routing;
cable interception;
seabed warfare;
underwater drone operations.
CSIS has highlighted that many Chinese research vessels operate in ways that create strategic datasets with potential military utility. The overlap between civilian oceanography and naval capability is substantial.
Every map of a mineral deposit is also a map for a submarine.
The military implications could ultimately prove even more significant.
Oceanographic surveys reveal:
seabed topography;
thermal layers;
salinity gradients;
underwater acoustic conditions.
These factors determine how submarines move, hide and detect one another.
CSIS researchers note that much of the information gathered by civilian survey vessels could directly support future naval operations.
The same map that identifies a mineral deposit can identify an optimal submarine route.
The same survey that supports science can support anti-submarine warfare.
The same vessel that collects geological data can collect strategic data.
History Suggests This Is Normal
Great powers rarely build capabilities for a single purpose.
Merchant fleets became navies.
Railways moved troops.
Satellites became military infrastructure.
The internet began as a defence project.
The deep ocean is unlikely to prove any different.
The West Is Fighting The Last War
The West continues to debate whether deep-sea mining should occur.
China appears to be preparing for a future in which deep-ocean activity is inevitable.
One side is arguing over permission.
The other is building capability.
This distinction matters.
Because when history looks back on the twenty-first century, deep-sea mining may prove to be only a small part of a much larger story.
The real story may be that humanity finally began to occupy the largest territory it had never fully explored.
And while much of the world debated whether that should happen, China quietly started mapping it.
The next great geopolitical contest may not be in space.
It may be in the half of our planet that remains largely beyond the control of nation states.
And China appears determined to get there first.
The Ocean Is What Space Wants To Become
Space advocates often describe a future built around:
resource extraction;
communications infrastructure;
strategic competition;
energy systems;
transportation networks.
But these are not future realities.
They already exist in the oceans.
The deep ocean already hosts:
global communications;
resource extraction;
strategic military competition;
critical infrastructure;
international rivalries.
In many ways, the ocean is simply a more mature version of what space enthusiasts imagine space may eventually become.
The Frontier We Forgot
The twenty-first century has become obsessed with space.
Meanwhile, the world’s largest and most aggressive powers are quietly investing billions in understanding the ocean floor.
One frontier may eventually transform civilisation.
The other already underpins it.
Oceans cover 70% of the planet, regulate the climate, produce more than half the world’s oxygen, and sustain human economies through food transportation and resources.
The Dutch built maritime power.
The British built maritime power.
The Americans built maritime power.
Each rose to global dominance through mastery of the oceans.
China appears to have drawn the same lesson.
The Portuguese did not become a maritime empire because they possessed colonies.
They became a maritime empire because they possessed maps.
The British did not rule the seas because they owned resources.
They ruled because they understood the oceans better than their rivals.
Before every maritime empire came cartographers.
Before every conquest came exploration.
Before every resource boom came geological surveys.
China appears to be following the same sequence.
While much of the West dreams of conquering Mars, China is systematically mapping, surveying and preparing to operate across the largest territory on Earth that remains beyond the control of any nation.
It is also has the richest mineral and hydrocarbon potential of any territory on the planet.
The next great geopolitical contest will not be fought in space.
It may be fought across the 50% of our planet that still lies largely beyond sovereign control.
And by the time the West realises that, China won’t just have mapped it, they might have colonised it.
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