Network Effects

The So-Called 6G “Race” May only Be a Solo Affair

Atlas 

 

 

In April 1973, Motorola engineer Martin Cooper walked down Sixth Avenue in Manhattan carrying a device that looked less like a telephone and more like a brick. It weighed over a kilogram, offered roughly thirty minutes of battery life, and took a grueling ten hours to recharge. Yet, Cooper wasn’t particularly bothered by its limitations—he had a point to prove.

Stopping on the bustling New York sidewalk, he lifted the bulky prototype to his ear and made the world's first public cell phone call. On the other end was Joel Engel, head of Bell Labs and Cooper’s direct rival in the fierce race to build the first handheld mobile phone. "Hi, Joel, it's Marty Cooper," he began, before delivering the ultimate punchline:

“I'm calling you from a cell phone. But a real cell phone. A handheld, personal, portable cell phone.”

 

 

The call was short—just long enough to rub it in—but it brought something out of the realm of science fiction into reality: a telephone designed to follow its owner, rather than remain tethered to a building, a desk, or a car. Cooper’s prototype was far from practical, but the vision behind it was revolutionary. He had won the race to put a telephone in someone’s hand, but he hadn’t yet built the network required to make it truly useful.

That distinction matters. A mobile phone is merely the device; a cellular network is the infrastructure that gives it a voice. Cooper had brilliantly demonstrated the former, but building the network itself would take years.

In 1979, six years after Cooper’s historic demonstration, Nippon Telegraph & Telephone launched the world’s first commercial cellular network in Tokyo. It marked the dawn of what we now call 1G—the first generation of mobile networking.

From that single spark, the technology evolved relentlessly. 1G gave way to 2G, which paved the way for 3G, followed by the leaps into 4G and 5G. With every new generation, nations and corporations entered a global race to build infrastructure, define international standards, and capture the immense economic value waiting at the finish line.

 

 

The race for the next-generation wireless network is fiercer than ever. This is no minor upgrade, but a quantum leap forward: where one gigabyte per second once felt lightning-fast, 6G is expected to shatter expectations at a staggering one terabyte per second—a thousand times faster. But speed is only part of the equation. 6G will also access a wider wireless spectrum—the invisible radio frequencies that carry signals between devices and networks—providing the necessary capacity to handle massive data volumes.

While 5G laid the groundwork for the Internet of Things, 6G will usher in a deeply immersive digital realm that can mirror reality itself. Far lower and more predictable latency will drive near-instantaneous communication between humans and machines, unlocking groundbreaking capabilities across healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and computing, enabling applications ranging from artificial intelligence to autonomous systems and humanoid robots.

As a result, the country that leads the charge in developing and deploying 6G won’t just have bragging rights; it will control the critical infrastructure that underpins global economic competitiveness, national security, and modern society itself. For these reasons, 6G has become the ultimate high-stakes battleground in the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

To meet this challenge head-on, the Trump administration launched a global partnership last month with over 20 allies, including the UK, Germany, and Japan. Together, they aim to jointly accelerate the development of secure 6G wireless networks. This initiative aligns government strategies years before 6G replaces 5G, establishing cross-border communication channels, pooling technical resources, and building the foundation for commercial rollout.

Ultimately, this strategic move reinforces President Trump’s push for U.S. and allied technological leadership, following the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and a December presidential memorandum focused on diplomatic coalition building. What started as a bold technological goal has now evolved into a serious, strategic imperative, with the administration officially underscoring just how critical next-generation 6G networks are:

“foundational to the national security, foreign policy, and economic prosperity of the United States.”

Building on this, Donald Trump’s push for advanced connectivity has spanned both of his terms in office, beginning with his famous 2019 call for “5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible.” That initial vision quickly became reality when the first commercial 5G networks in the U.S. launched during his first presidential administration that same year.

Continuing this ambitious pace, the current administration has asked companies like Qualcomm to prepare commercial 6G-capable devices in time for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.

This, however, brings us right back to Cooper and the earlier passage in this piece noting that “a mobile phone is merely the device; a cellular network is the infrastructure that gives it a voice.” While device readiness is a major milestone, the true challenge lies in the infrastructure. This explains why China—despite launching 5G roughly a year after the U.S.—now leads the 6G race.

China now owns the core infrastructure, manufacturing, supply chains, and ecosystems for 5G networks, with Chinese companies accounting for roughly 80% of base stations worldwide while building the vast majority of 5G devices, and accounting for over 40% of the world’s 5G-connected connections. Underscoring the sheer scale of that adoption, China’s 5G mobile users exceeded 1.3 billion in July. 

 

 

 This dominance matters because 5G infrastructure will not simply vanish when 6G arrives. Much of it can be upgraded and integrated into future networks, making today’s base stations a strategic launching pad for tomorrow. The dense web of sites, antennas, fiber-optic connections, and technical expertise currently being deployed for 5G will form the physical foundation for 6G. Meanwhile, technologies like higher-frequency spectrum and AI-driven network management are already being forged and tested on 5G networks.

In short, whoever controls 5G infrastructure today is not starting from scratch in the 6G race, having already secured much of the terrain upon which the next generation will be built.

Driving this massive operational advantage and at the center of China’s success are telecom giants Huawei and ZTE. Despite heavy U.S. sanctions that block them from Western markets and the EU's plan to phase out their components and equipment, these firms continue to grow aggressively worldwide.

This contrasts sharply with eroding American capabilities. While Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson and ZTE dominate the global telecom equipment market, the three largest U.S. telecom equipment suppliers account for only about 10% of combined industry revenue, leaving Europe’s Nokia and Ericsson to carry much of the Western weight. Telecom equipment revenue share is a vital metric because it measures a supplier’s market power, competitive strength, and financial position in the multi-billion-dollar infrastructure industry.

 

 

 As the West and China go head-to-head in this unfolding 6G race, Europe’s broader ambitions are increasingly lagging. European telecom companies are struggling to grow profitability, and investments aimed at achieving technological leadership have consequently been delayed. Furthermore, Nokia and Ericsson have faced fierce rivalry in China from domestic players fueled by aggressive state backing, lower pricing, local market preferences, and strict regulatory hurdles for foreign technology.

The breaking point arrived earlier this month when, after two decades of building telecom infrastructure in mainland China, Nokia initiated a near-total withdrawal from the country. This exit cements a permanent split in the global telecom market, ensuring that 6G will develop through entirely separate, competing Western and Chinese ecosystems just as Trump’s global partnership intended.

That fracture is handing China an advantage the West cannot easily replicate: a massive domestic proving ground with abundant resources where 6G technologies can be developed, stress-tested, and deployed at scale long before global standards are finalized.

A striking example unfolded in July, when China commenced the large-scale delivery of gallium chips for space-ground 6G networks. Developed by the U.S.-sanctioned No. 55 Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), this breakthrough represents the world's most powerful radar chip.

“It will function as the fundamental backbone supporting next‑generation 6G communications, commercial space programmes, the low‑altitude economy, and emergency response communications.”

Gallium nitride chips are smaller, more powerful, well suited to high-frequency, and capable of transmitting data over significantly greater distances, establishing the material as a cornerstone for 6G. The technological leap is striking given that 300 new U.S. F-35 fighters will be delivered without radars.

 

 

Gallium nitride is also vital for the F-35’s size, weight, and power requirements. With zero domestic production for the past forty years, U.S. import reliance stands at 100%, while China commands 99% of global output. Although Beijing technically allows gallium exports under a temporary suspension, shipments remain near zero due to strict licensing rules.

The gallium choke point is only one example. The 6G race is creating demand for an entire new class of advanced materials and components, many of which the U.S. does not produce at scale. The Chinese-led world’s first all-frequency 6G chip, for example, is built on thin-film lithium niobate, while researchers are exploring graphene, ferrites, liquid crystals, germanium and specialised glass for future 6G antennas, photonic chips and high-frequency connections.

This lays bare a harsh reality: whoever controls the critical minerals will ultimately dictate the future of 6G.

When looking at the full picture, from foundational infrastructure to the critical minerals that make technological advancement possible, only one conclusion remains: China holds a vastly superior hand to win the 6G race.

Crucially, 6G networks have not yet been fully standardized, with the first normative 3GPP specifications expected to be completed in 2028–2029. Yet, the technology is already being developed, tested, and deployed in prototype form. While the West is still debating how to shape the next generation of connectivity, China is already building the industrial capabilities and infrastructure that could give it an outsized influence over the standards that ultimately define 6G.

 

 

Consequently, telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE are well-positioned to be the first to roll out 6G. The BRICS economic bloc is set to reap the benefits of this early deployment, using it as a vehicle to bridge the digital divide, decouple from Western tech infrastructure, and supercharge their digital economies. By co-developing, standardizing, and deploying 6G collectively, the bloc aims to secure a decisive head start ahead of the technology's anticipated commercialization window around 2029–2030.

Trump’s 2028 deadline to showcase pre-commercial 6G devices at the Olympics is therefore largely a symbolic milestone rather than a reflection of standard development timelines. It echoes Martin Cooper’s pioneering achievement, yet with one crucial distinction. In 1973, Cooper merely had to prove that a handheld phone could exist.

Today, the United States faces the challenge of forging the entire technological ecosystem that sustains it. A 6G device might debut at the 2028 Olympics as a high-profile showcase. However, unless the networks, base stations, spectrum, supply chains, and components are ready to back it up, it risks turning the phone back into a modern-day brick reminiscent of Cooper's early prototype: an impressive spectacle of human ingenuity, yet left without a functioning network, it is reduced to a heavy, useless device stripped of the infrastructure required to make it truly useful…