Monday, August 3, 2026

 'Palestine' is No Longer about Palestinians

The People Who Claim to Support "Palestine" need Palestinians to Keep Suffering in Perpetuity 

Andres Spokoiny 

 


 

One of the keys to understanding Western attitudes toward the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is to distinguish between Palestinians and Palestinianism.

Palestinianism is something else entirely. It is not a movement for Palestinian rights. It is a Western ideological framework that transforms “Palestine” from a particular conflict into the central moral lens through which every other issue is interpreted.

The extent to which Palestinianism has colonized public life is difficult to exaggerate.

Climate movements suspend campaigns against global warming to organize demonstrations for Gaza. Pride marches become platforms for “Palestinian liberation.” Labor unions issue declarations about Israel. Literary festivals, immigration protests, museum openings, academic conferences, municipal elections, even mining festivals in Scotland suddenly discover that their central concern is “Palestine.”

At the 2025 Durham Miners’ Gala — a celebration of Britain’s mining heritage — speakers insisted that defending British workers required “freeing Palestine.”

The underlying assumption is breathtaking in its ambition: “Palestine” is no longer one conflict among many, but the hidden key to all of them. Solve “Palestine” (or, more accurately, eliminate the Jewish state) and capitalism, colonialism, racism, patriarchy, climate change, and every other great evil suddenly disappear.

I’m not exaggerating. Irish author Sally Rooney recently declared that “the struggle for Palestine is also and has always been a struggle for human liberation and for our future on this earth.” American political activist Angela Davis described “Palestine” as “the center of the world.” The Climate Justice Alliance proclaimed that “the path to ecological justice runs through a free Palestine.”

None of these statements merely express solidarity with Palestinians or promote a realistic solution for their plight. They assign “Palestine” a unique symbolic role among the world’s foremost injustices.

Of course, people are free to express solidarity with causes they consider just. Nothing is objectionable about that. But solidarity alone cannot explain why a conflict involving a tiny strip of land has acquired a symbolic centrality unmatched by wars that have killed vastly more people, displaced vastly more civilians, or reshaped the international order far more profoundly.

What we are witnessing is not solidarity but something else: The global Palestinianism movement has become so culturally powerful that “Palestine” functions less as a concrete cause than as a universal symbolic language. The result is paradoxical: The more “Palestine” comes to stand for everything, the less attention is paid to the concrete conditions, institutions, compromises, and policies that might actually improve Palestinian lives.

The political theories of Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe help explain how this transformation occurs. Laclau argued that successful political movements are not built simply by accumulating protests, but by weaving disparate grievances into a common narrative. Political entrepreneurs present seemingly unrelated issues as different manifestations of the same underlying structure of oppression. Laclau called this a “chain of equivalence.”

At the center of that chain stands what he called an empty signifier: a symbol broad enough to absorb multiple, often unrelated aspirations. Concepts such as “the people,” “justice,” or “democracy” acquire enormous political power precisely because they remain undefined. Different constituencies can project onto them their own hopes, fears, and grievances.

Chantal Mouffe later emphasized that such symbols can become the master signifier, the symbolic center that gives emotional coherence to an otherwise heterogeneous coalition. If the central symbol derives its power from being “empty,” then the same must eventually become true of its antagonist; in other words, the enemy no longer matters for what it actually does but for what it comes to represent.

Once emptied of their concrete reality, “Palestine” and Israel become infinitely useful. Palestinians cease to be a people and become the “Every Victim.” Israel ceases to be a country and becomes the “Ultimate Evil” itself. The less either resembles reality, the more valuable they become as symbols.

Once this happens, the conflict itself becomes strangely irrelevant. There is little reason to study its history, understand its competing narratives, grapple with its moral ambiguities, or search for workable compromises. Accepting the complexity of this conflict threatens the very symbolic architecture that gives it power.

Indeed, peace itself becomes almost subversive. A negotiated settlement would collapse the ideological structure that Palestinianism has painstakingly constructed. Once “Palestine” becomes one territorial dispute among many — messy, compromised, tragic, and painfully ordinary — it can no longer function as the master metaphor of “global oppression.”

None of this means that Palestinians have not suffered. They have suffered. Precisely because Palestinians deserve to be treated as a real people rather than as ideological raw material, they deserve something better than being endlessly recruited into Western culture wars. They deserve to be discussed as a nation with political choices, competing visions, institutions to build, leaders to hold accountable, and a future to secure.

This raises an obvious question: Why Palestine? Why did this conflict, and not another, become the master signifier of our age?

 


 

Some explanations are straightforward.

Modern politics rewards moral simplicity. “Palestine” appears to offer a perfectly symmetrical drama: oppressed versus oppressor; colonized versus colonizer; victim versus power. It is a story that can be understood instantly, compressed into a slogan, and exported to almost any political context. That simplicity, though false, is politically useful.

“Palestine” offers a common banner under which movements that otherwise have little in common can march together. Islamists who would imprison homosexuals suddenly become allies of LGBTQ activists. Radical feminists overlook movements whose treatment of women fundamentally contradicts their own principles. Anti-racist activists who rightly denounce ethnic massacres elsewhere suspend those concerns when the perpetrators happen to fit the preferred revolutionary narrative.

“Palestine” allows mutually incompatible ideologies to postpone their contradictions in favor of a common enemy.

“Palestine” also functions less as a foreign-policy position than as a marker of moral identity. Supporting “Palestine” increasingly signals membership in a broader moral community. It tells others not simply what one thinks about the Middle East, but what kind of person one is. That is why “Palestine” appears, often incongruously, in municipal elections, school board meetings, labor disputes, academic hiring committees, and cultural institutions that possess no conceivable influence over events between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.

Then there is social media. Algorithms reward emotionally powerful symbols, visual narratives, and moral certainty. “Palestine” plays on those three dimensions. Images circulate instantly, stripped of context and embedded within stories that users already wish to tell about capitalism, colonialism, racism, or empire. The conflict is not merely reported; it is optimized for virality. Other tragedies — equally horrific but less photogenic, less familiar, or less useful — simply disappear beneath the algorithmic horizon.

Yet none of these explanations fully accounts for Palestinianism’s extraordinary success.

The comparison with the Uyghurs is especially revealing. Since 2017, the Chinese government has subjected the Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim minorities in Xinjiang to one of the most extensive campaigns of repression in the contemporary world.

Credible investigations have documented the mass arbitrary detention of hundreds of thousands (and possibly millions) of people in internment camps; pervasive digital surveillance through facial recognition, biometric data collection, and electronic monitoring; torture, sexual violence, and other forms of abuse in detention; forced labor programs; severe restrictions on religious practice, language, and cultural expression; the destruction of mosques, shrines, and cemeteries; the separation of children from their families into state-run boarding schools; and coercive birth-control measures, including forced sterilizations and IUD insertions.

If one were searching for a contemporary example of colonial domination, cultural destruction, mass incarceration, religious persecution, and technological authoritarianism, Xinjiang would appear to satisfy every criterion.

Yet, the Uyghur cause has not colonized the Western imagination. It does not appear compulsorily at climate marches, literary festivals, Pride celebrations, labor conferences, museum openings, or municipal elections. There are no demands that every movement first declare its position on Xinjiang before discussing its own agenda.

There are, to be sure, legitimate reasons for the difference. Some Western governments are more deeply entangled with Israel than with China. “Palestine” has enjoyed decades of well-funded organized international solidarity. China has been extraordinarily successful at restricting access to Xinjiang while suppressing images and testimony.

But that still fails to explain the extraordinary symbolic value attached to Israel — the ease with which one small conflict comes to represent colonialism, capitalism, racism, militarism, policing, borders, environmental destruction, and the entire system of “Western domination.” To understand that, one must examine not only the victim but also the antagonist.

What probably explains why Uyghurism is not a thing while Palestinianism has colonized the political imagination is that Palestinianism derives much of its symbolic power from the identity of its enemy: the Jews.

Antisemitism has never treated Jews as merely another disliked minority. It has consistently transformed them into explanatory figures. Across radically different societies and ideologies, Jews have been imagined as the embodiment of money, capitalism, communism, cosmopolitanism, nationalism, rootlessness, modernity, decadence, secrecy, manipulation, finance, media, and invisible power.

Whatever a civilization most feared or hated, Jews somehow came to personify. Long before Ernesto Laclau described empty signifiers, Jews had already served as one for nearly 2,000 years. They became the receptacle into which societies poured their anxieties, contradictions, and failures.

Israel allows this ancient symbolic structure to be translated into the moral vocabulary of the 21st century. The Jew is no longer imagined merely as the hidden power behind the curtains. In the figure of Israel, Jewish power becomes visible, sovereign, armed, technologically sophisticated, and therefore capable of personifying not merely one country but an entire system.

This means that Palestinianism has inherited a sort of moral structure that places “the Jew” as the embodiment of evil. Sometimes that inheritance is unconscious, sometimes it is adopted and used deliberately. Either way, Israel becomes the state whose wrongdoings acquire a different dimension. Russia, China, Syria, and Iran may commit crimes, but those crimes remain Russian, Chinese, Syrian or Iranian crimes; they are not made to explain the world.

 


 

The Uyghur cause is “boring” because it merely directs attention toward the Uyghurs. Palestinianism directs attention toward a theory of the world — and the historical availability of Jews as universal explanatory figures helps explain why. China may oppress a people, but Jews can still be made to explain the universe.

And that has consequences.

It hurts Israelis, certainly. It fuels a political culture in which the Jewish state is judged not by the standards applied to other nations, but by standards reserved for metaphysical evil. It also hurts Jews around the world. Once Israel becomes the symbolic embodiment of global injustice, Jews inevitably become its local representatives. The oldest habit of antisemitism reasserts itself in contemporary language: Jews once again become responsible not merely for what they do, but for what they supposedly represent.

Above all, Palestinianism hurts Palestinians because the actual flesh-and-blood Palestinians disappear into a symbol. They cease to be a people who need functioning institutions, accountable leadership, economic opportunity, personal security, and rule of law. Instead, they become the indispensable protagonists of a universal morality play, valued less for who they are than for what they signify.

Their suffering is transformed into political currency used to explain capitalism, colonialism, racism, climate change, patriarchy, and the failures of the West. But symbols cannot negotiate borders, build schools, reform governments, create jobs, attract investment, fight corruption, or make the painful compromises on which every durable peace depends.

Indeed, Palestinianism creates a perverse incentive structure. The movement rewards theatrical maximalism over attainable improvement. It elevates slogans over institutions, symbolism over governance, permanent resistance over political responsibility. Every concession becomes betrayal. Every compromise becomes collaboration. Every practical success threatens the ideological purity of the cause.

That is why Palestinianism shows little curiosity about Palestinian political failures. Hamas’ absolute authoritarianism, the Palestinian Authority’s rampant corruption, the absence of formidable institutions, the suppression of dissent, the failures of governance, the fragmentation of Palestinian society — these are all awkward facts because they restore agency to Palestinians, and agency complicates the allegory.

That also explains why Palestinianism appears strangely indifferent to outcomes. If the goal were primarily to improve Palestinian lives, one would expect an obsessive interest in economic development, institutional reform, educational achievement, anti-corruption measures, diplomatic breakthroughs, and the difficult work of preparing a society for statehood.

Instead, the movement overwhelmingly rewards symbolic confrontation. The greatest prestige accrues not to those who improve Palestinian lives, but to those who most effectively dramatize Palestinian victimhood.

Consider Greta Thunberg. She has become one of the world’s most recognizable faces of the Palestinian cause. Yet it is difficult to identify a single concrete improvement in the daily lives of Palestinians that resulted from her activism. Her flotilla generated headlines, photographs, and social-media engagement, but it did not open a border crossing, build a school, create a job, reform a Palestinian institution, or bring the parties any closer to peace.

That is a feature and not a bug. Palestinianism produces political capital for the activists, and virtually nothing for the Palestinians.

The result is that Palestinians become indispensable to the movement precisely insofar as they remain unresolved. A “Palestine” at peace with Israel would matter profoundly to Palestinians, but it would be catastrophic for Palestinianism.

 

Sunday, August 2, 2026

 The Deep Ocean Imperative II

With 64 Active Research Vessels, 16 Deep-Sea Geological Expeditions, and Billions Invested in Mapping the Global Ocean, China is Building the Capability to Dominate the Largest Last Frontier on Earth

Amanda Van Dyke   

 


 

For much of the past decade, the public imagination has been captured by space.

Elon Musk wants to colonise Mars.

Governments discuss lunar mining.

Investors talk about asteroid resources.

Entire industries have emerged around the idea that humanity’s next frontier lies beyond Earth’s atmosphere.

But from a purely economic perspective, this may be the wrong frontier.

The deep ocean is not hypothetical.

It already exists.

It already contains enormous quantities of resources.

It already hosts critical infrastructure.

It already determines military power.

And unlike Mars or asteroids, it sits directly beneath our feet.

The reality is that no civilisation will build large-scale mining operations on asteroids before it learns how to systematically operate across the ocean floor.

The next frontier is not 225 million kilometres away.

It is five kilometres beneath the surface of our own planet.

We Talk About Satellites. The World Runs On Cables.

Space receives the headlines.

But it is the ocean carries more data that space has ever dreamed of.

There is a common misconception that satellites now dominate global communications.

They do not.

Even if Starlink were to quadruple in size and grow from roughly 2% of global internet traffic to 8%, more than 90% of global data would still travel through subsea cables.

The modern economy depends on a 2million km long network of approximately 600 undersea cables carrying:

  • financial transactions;

  • internet traffic;

  • cloud computing;

  • military communications;

  • AI data flows.

Without them, global commerce would grind to a halt.

Every major technology company depends on them.

Every financial market depends on them.

Every modern military depends on them.

The information age is not built on satellites.

It is built on the seabed.

The Largest Energy Province On Earth

When most people think about the deep ocean, they think about minerals.

But hydrocarbons remain enormously important.

Today roughly one-third of global oil production already comes from offshore fields.

Many of the world’s largest undeveloped petroleum resources lie offshore.

Brazil.

Guyana.

Norway.

The Gulf of Mexico.

West Africa.

The Eastern Mediterranean.

The Arctic.

Future discoveries are increasingly likely to come from deeper waters.

The deep ocean is not merely the next mineral frontier.

It is one of the world’s most important energy frontiers.

The Forgotten Geography Of Power

History’s great powers were rarely land powers first.

They were maritime powers.

The Portuguese.

The Dutch.

The British.

The Americans.

Control of the oceans enabled:

  • trade;

  • resource access;

  • military projection;

  • industrial expansion.

The sea has always been the operating system of global power.

This is why Chinese interest in oceanography deserves more attention.

Because every empire for the last 100 years has been a maritime one, and began with understanding the sea.

Maps came first. Ships came second. Power followed.

The New Great Game Is Already Underway

China and Russia are conducting some of the most extensive seabed mapping efforts in modern history.

Officially, these missions are scientific.

Many undoubtedly are.

But throughout history, scientific exploration and strategic competition have often advanced together.

The same survey data that identifies mineral deposits can support submarine operations.

The same oceanographic measurements that support climate research can support anti-submarine warfare.

The same seabed maps that help lay cables can help locate them.

Or cut them.

The distinction between civilian and strategic capability becomes increasingly blurred beneath the ocean.

Why Greenland Matters

This is one reason Greenland has become so strategically important.

Much of the public discussion focuses on rare earths.

But the deeper issue is geography.

Greenland sits astride one of the most important maritime approaches to North America.

The Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap has been one of NATO’s most important naval chokepoints since the Cold War.

Any Russian submarine entering the Atlantic must pass through or around it.

Control and monitoring of these routes remains essential to North American security.

As Arctic ice retreats and northern sea routes become more accessible, the strategic importance of this region is likely to increase rather than diminish.

The deep ocean surrounding Greenland is therefore not simply a resource story.

It is a security story.

China Isn’t Just Building A Deep-Sea Mining Industry. It’s Mapping The Next Frontier Of Human Power.

For most of human history, power followed maps.

The Portuguese mapped the sea lanes.

The Spanish mapped the Americas.

The British mapped the world.

The Americans mapped the skies and eventually space.

Today, China is mapping the deep ocean.

And I suspect most people still fail to understand what that means.

Because this is not really about deep-sea mining or critical minerals.

It is about the largest unexplored territory left on Earth.

The Last Unclaimed Frontier

Roughly 70% of our planet is covered by ocean.

Yet the overwhelming majority of humanity’s economic activity occurs on a tiny fraction of its surface.

Beneath those oceans lies a realm larger than all continents combined.

Much of it remains poorly understood.

It is almost impossible to surveil or monitor.

Vast regions of the abyssal plains, mid-ocean ridges, fracture zones and hadal trenches remain less thoroughly mapped than parts of the Moon.

Critically, almost half of the Earth’s surface lies beyond the jurisdiction of any nation state.

No sovereign government controls it.

No army occupies it.

No permanent population inhabits it.

From a geopolitical perspective, this is extraordinary.

For the first time since the colonial era, there exists a frontier of global significance that remains largely unconquered.

China Appears to Understand This

Western discussion of the deep ocean is almost entirely focused on whether deep-sea mining should happen.

China’s discussion appears very different.

China is systematically building the capability required to understand, access and eventually operate throughout the deep ocean.

The evidence is becoming difficult to ignore.

According to CSIS, China now operates the world’s largest fleet of civilian research vessels.

Researchers identified 64 full time active Chinese survey and research vessels conducting operations across the globe. More than 80% exhibited behaviours, affiliations or activities suggesting strategic value beyond purely civilian science.

The scale is remarkable.

Chinese survey vessels are active throughout:

  • the South China Sea;

  • the Western Pacific;

  • the Indian Ocean;

  • the Arctic;

  • the Southern Ocean.

This is not regional science.

This is global mapping.

The New Cartographers

Recent reporting from Reuters suggests China is conducting one of the largest ocean mapping programmes in modern history.

Researchers examined more than five years of activity from dozens of Chinese research vessels operating across the Pacific, Indian and Arctic Oceans.

The vessels repeatedly sailed precise grid patterns characteristic of detailed seabed mapping and oceanographic surveys. Naval analysts noted that the resulting datasets would be invaluable for future submarine operations and underwater warfare.

This should not surprise us.

You cannot dominate an environment you do not understand.

Before navies project power, they map.

Before miners extract resources, they survey.

Before cables are laid, the seabed is characterised.

Before submarines hide, someone studies the ocean’s acoustic properties.

Knowledge always comes first.

China Has Built The World’s Largest Full-Ocean-Depth Exploration Programme

China’s two flagship manned submersibles alone have accumulated remarkable operational experience.

  • Jiaolong has completed 317 dives and supported roughly 900 deep-sea descents since 2009.

  • Fendouzhe (Striver) has completed 329 dives, including 25 dives below 10,000 metres, more than any other nation’s full-ocean-depth programme according to Chinese sources.

  • Fendouzhe can reach 10,909 metres, effectively the entire depth of the world’s oceans.

While Western nations conduct occasional flagship expeditions, China has spent the last fifteen years industrialising deep-sea exploration.

China Has Moved Beyond Exploration Into Persistent Presence

One-off dives are impressive.

Persistent capability is more important.

China now operates:

  • multiple dedicated deep-ocean research fleets;

  • specialised survey vessels;

  • full-ocean-depth submersibles;

  • deep-sea ROVs;

  • seabed observatories;

  • deep-sea drilling capability;

  • autonomous underwater systems.

The strategic distinction is important:

The United States can reach the deep ocean.

China is building the ability to operate there continuously.

The Electromagnetic Mapping Breakthrough Is Bigger Than Most People Realise

The recent Haiyang Dizhi-6 expedition may be one of the most important developments.

China completed sea trials of what Chinese sources describe as:

the world’s first full-ocean-depth (10,000-metre-class) electromagnetic acquisition station and offshore operating system.

Why this matters:

Traditional seabed mapping mostly tells you:

  • shape of the seabed;

  • bathymetry;

  • physical features.

Electromagnetic surveying tells you:

  • electrical conductivity;

  • rock composition;

  • buried geological structures;

  • fluid pathways;

  • hydrothermal systems;

  • mineralised zones;

  • potential hydrocarbon accumulations.

In simple terms:

Sonar tells you what the seabed looks like.

Electromagnetic systems tell you what is hidden beneath it.

The fact that China is now deploying such systems at 7,700-10,000 metre depths is strategically significant because it allows them to map resources and geology that many nations cannot even physically access.

And they wouldn’t be mapping it if they didn’t have a plan for mining it.

China Is Mapping The Hadal Zone While Most Nations Are Barely Studying It

The deepest parts of the oceans are known as the hadal zone.

Very few countries can routinely access them.

China’s recent expedition specifically highlighted research into:

  • abyssal rift systems;

  • hadal-zone Earth systems;

  • ultra-deep geological structures.

Most countries still regard these regions as scientific curiosities.

China increasingly appears to view them as future operating environments.

The Mineral Resource Prize

Of course mineral resources matter. There is an uncomfortable reality that I mapped out in the Mineral Imperative.

We have severely deteriorated the resources available on land, grades are less than half of what they were 25 years ago, yet in the next 25 years we need to mine 3x minimum what we did in the last 25.

The seabed contains:

  • polymetallic nodules;

  • cobalt-rich crusts;

  • massive sulphides;

  • rare earth-bearing sediments.

Collectively these may represent one of the largest untapped concentrations of strategic materials on Earth.

China already dominates much of today’s mineral supply chain.

The logical next step is securing influence over tomorrow’s.

Viewed through this lens, deep-sea mining begins to look less like an environmental debate and more like a continuation of China’s long-term resource strategy.

The Resources are only half the Prize, the Naval Prize is the other half

The same datasets useful for mining are useful for:

  • submarine navigation;

  • anti-submarine warfare;

  • cable routing;

  • cable interception;

  • seabed warfare;

  • underwater drone operations.

CSIS has highlighted that many Chinese research vessels operate in ways that create strategic datasets with potential military utility. The overlap between civilian oceanography and naval capability is substantial.

Every map of a mineral deposit is also a map for a submarine.

The military implications could ultimately prove even more significant.

Oceanographic surveys reveal:

  • seabed topography;

  • thermal layers;

  • salinity gradients;

  • underwater acoustic conditions.

These factors determine how submarines move, hide and detect one another.

CSIS researchers note that much of the information gathered by civilian survey vessels could directly support future naval operations.

The same map that identifies a mineral deposit can identify an optimal submarine route.

The same survey that supports science can support anti-submarine warfare.

The same vessel that collects geological data can collect strategic data.

History Suggests This Is Normal

Great powers rarely build capabilities for a single purpose.

Merchant fleets became navies.

Railways moved troops.

Satellites became military infrastructure.

The internet began as a defence project.

The deep ocean is unlikely to prove any different.

The West Is Fighting The Last War

The West continues to debate whether deep-sea mining should occur.

China appears to be preparing for a future in which deep-ocean activity is inevitable.

One side is arguing over permission.

The other is building capability.

This distinction matters.

Because when history looks back on the twenty-first century, deep-sea mining may prove to be only a small part of a much larger story.

The real story may be that humanity finally began to occupy the largest territory it had never fully explored.

And while much of the world debated whether that should happen, China quietly started mapping it.

The next great geopolitical contest may not be in space.

It may be in the half of our planet that remains largely beyond the control of nation states.

And China appears determined to get there first.

The Ocean Is What Space Wants To Become

Space advocates often describe a future built around:

  • resource extraction;

  • communications infrastructure;

  • strategic competition;

  • energy systems;

  • transportation networks.

But these are not future realities.

They already exist in the oceans.

The deep ocean already hosts:

  • global communications;

  • resource extraction;

  • strategic military competition;

  • critical infrastructure;

  • international rivalries.

In many ways, the ocean is simply a more mature version of what space enthusiasts imagine space may eventually become.

The Frontier We Forgot

The twenty-first century has become obsessed with space.

Meanwhile, the world’s largest and most aggressive powers are quietly investing billions in understanding the ocean floor.

One frontier may eventually transform civilisation.

The other already underpins it.

Oceans cover 70% of the planet, regulate the climate, produce more than half the world’s oxygen, and sustain human economies through food transportation and resources.

The Dutch built maritime power.

The British built maritime power.

The Americans built maritime power.

Each rose to global dominance through mastery of the oceans.

China appears to have drawn the same lesson.

The Portuguese did not become a maritime empire because they possessed colonies.

They became a maritime empire because they possessed maps.

The British did not rule the seas because they owned resources.

They ruled because they understood the oceans better than their rivals.

Before every maritime empire came cartographers.

Before every conquest came exploration.

Before every resource boom came geological surveys.

China appears to be following the same sequence.

While much of the West dreams of conquering Mars, China is systematically mapping, surveying and preparing to operate across the largest territory on Earth that remains beyond the control of any nation.

It is also has the richest mineral and hydrocarbon potential of any territory on the planet.

The next great geopolitical contest will not be fought in space.

It may be fought across the 50% of our planet that still lies largely beyond sovereign control.

And by the time the West realises that, China won’t just have mapped it, they might have colonised it.

 

 Rare Earths 101 Part 2 : The Path To Rare Earth Independence

Brownfield beats Greenfield. Old Fashioned Chemistry beats Every “Novel”  Flowsheet. And the West is much Closer to Rare-Earth Independence than the Doom-Loop narrative Suggests 

Amanda Van Dyke 

 


 

In Part I, I walked through what rare earths actually are, where they sit on the periodic table, why they matter, and the complex physical chain that turns ugly grey rock into the permanent magnets inside every EV motor, wind turbine, F-35, cruise missile, MRI machine, and iPhone speaker on the planet. The core argument was that mining is the easy bit. The strategic chokepoint is midstream — cracking, leaching, separation, oxide, metal, alloy, magnet — and inside that chokepoint the real chokepoint is separation, because rare-earth ions are so chemically similar to one another that pulling them apart is closer to distilling whisky a thousand times over than it is to anything a normal metallurgist does in a smelter.

Part II is about who figured out how to do that, who lost it, who stole it, who weaponised it, and — the part almost nobody in the mainstream press wants to write — who is quietly rebuilding it. Because the honest read of where we are in mid-2026 is not that the West is decades behind. It is that America and Japan already know how to do this, are already doing it, have already funded the businesses that will do more of it, and are three to five years — not thirty — away from meaningful rare-earth independence.

Brownfield beats greenfield. That is the whole argument. Let me show you why.

A Two-Hundred-Year Puzzle: The Science Was Always Ours

Rare earths are a European discovery and an American industry. Both facts have been quietly wiped from the story China now tells about itself.

In 1787, a Swedish army lieutenant called Carl Axel Arrhenius picked up an unusually heavy black rock in a quarry at Ytterby, a village outside Stockholm. He thought it might contain tungsten. He was wrong. The sample went to a Finnish chemist called Johan Gadolin, who in 1792 worked out that roughly 38 percent of its mass was a completely unknown “earth” — an oxide — which was eventually named yttria. Four of the seventeen rare earths — yttrium, ytterbium, terbium, and erbium — take their name from that one village. Gadolinite the mineral itself, and gadolinium, were named for the chemist.

That is where the story begins, and it also foreshadows the problem that would define the industry for the next two centuries. The rare earths sit in a single row at the bottom of the periodic table, they nearly all carry a +3 charge, and their ionic radii differ only very slightly from one neighbour to the next. Which means they behave almost identically in solution. Almost. And the entire commercial rare-earth industry — every single tonne of separated oxide humanity produces — lives inside that “almost.”

Nineteenth-century chemists relied on fractional crystallisation to tease the elements apart. The technique worked, technically, but it was so brutal that one classical separation reportedly required as many as 40,000 discrete operations. It took Americans, working in American national labs on American government contracts, to solve the problem at industrial scale.

At Ames Laboratory in Iowa in the 1940s and 1950s, Frank Spedding — a Manhattan Project veteran — developed ion-exchange displacement chromatography that reached pilot scale by 1953. At Oak Ridge and Argonne through the 1950s, Donald Peppard and Boyd Weaver went further and developed liquid-liquid solvent extraction — a continuous, scalable, exquisitely precise method that runs an aqueous stream and an organic stream in opposite directions through dozens or hundreds of mixer-settler stages, exploiting tiny differences in how each rare earth partitions between the two phases. Every commercial rare-earth separation plant on Earth today, whether it is in Baotou or Mountain Pass, is built on that American mid-century chemistry. This is what Quinton Hennigh meant in our interview when he said the technology is not a mystery, it is not lost, and it is not Chinese: the blueprints are in grandpa’s drawer.

America then did what America used to do with strategic industries. It built the plant. From the early 1950s through the mid-1980s, Mountain Pass in California — operated by Molycorp under Union Oil — was the single most important rare-earth mine in the world, and for much of that period supplied roughly 60 percent of global output. The killer app was europium, the red phosphor that made colour television possible. Former Molycorp CEO Mark Smith put it plainly in an interview: “Every single colour television that was made in the world had europium from the Mountain Pass deposit.” That is the industry America built and then let slip. Not through bad luck. Through choice.

China’s Great Move: Buy the Technology, Then Perfect It at Home

China did not out-innovate the West on rare earths. It out-strategised us. It recognized how important rare earths were to electronic motors and that electronics were at the heart of almost all modern technological innovation. The saw the choke point and how owning it was a strategic advantage. They used patient, state-directed accumulation of tacit capability behind a screen of infant-industry protection, funded by whatever Western partners were naive enough to hand over the keys. Rare earths condense the entire story into a single sector.

Start with the geology, because it matters. China sits on two genuinely world-class rare-earth resource types. Bayan Obo, in Inner Mongolia, was identified as an iron deposit in 1927; its rare-earth content was recognised in 1936. It is now the largest known REE deposit on Earth. Then, in the southern provinces — Jiangxi, Guangdong — China has the ionic-clay deposits the premium source for the heavy rare earths — dysprosium, terbium, europium — that are precisely the ones the West is now scrambling for.

Deng Xiaoping understood exactly what he was sitting on. During his 1992 Southern Tour, he reportedly delivered the line that has since been chiselled onto every rare-earth pitch deck on Earth: “The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earths.” The historian Julie Klinger has rightly cautioned against reading the quote as evidence of a fifty-year masterplan drawn up on a napkin in Yingtan station. But Deng did not need to hand-draft a masterplan. He needed to point at a resource, tell the system it mattered, and let the state machinery he inherited from Mao do the rest. Which is exactly what happened.

The real coup was Magnequench. In 1986, General Motors opened a plant in Anderson, Indiana producing neodymium-iron-boron magnets — the strongest permanent magnets ever invented, co-discovered in 1982 by John Croat at GM and Masato Sagawa at Sumitomo Special Metals in Japan. In 1995, in one of the most staggering acts of strategic self-harm in modern American industrial history, GM sold Magnequench for $70 million to a consortium that included the China National Non-Ferrous Metals Import & Export Corporation and San Huan New Material. Within a few years the Indiana operations had been physically dismantled and shipped to China. Not just the intellectual property. The entire plant. The bonded-magnet know-how. The equipment. The alloy recipes. All of it. Bill Clinton’s administration waved it through under a Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States review that has aged about as well as anything else from that era.

That is the pattern. American technology, American plants, American operators — sold, transferred, replicated, undercut. By the mid-2000s, China was making the magnets. By the late 2000s, it controlled almost all the separated oxides that fed them. By 2010, it was ready to use that position as a weapon.

The 2010 Warning Shot Nobody Heeded

In September 2010, a Chinese fishing trawler rammed a Japanese Coast Guard vessel near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japan detained the very drunk captain. China turned it into an international incident and stopped shipping rare earths to Japanese customers. Officially there was no embargo — China has always denied it — but industry could not get 1kg of rare earth metals in any form, prices spiked hard across the entire REE complex, and Japan received an object lesson in what it means to depend on a strategic adversary for the inputs to your entire industrial base.

To Japan’s enormous credit, they did not go back to sleep. They set up JOGMEC as the state vehicle for securing overseas mineral supply. They co-founded Japan Australia Rare Earths with Sojitz, put an initial $259 million into Lynas in Australia, and locked in a supply agreement covering up to 65 percent of Lynas’s heavy rare-earth output. They funded urban mining, recycling, substitution research, and — critically — they kept operating their small legacy separation plants at places like Nippon Yttrium in Kyushu. Japan did not forget how to do this. They stayed in the game at low volume and preserved the operator memory.

The United States, the EU, and Japan also filed a joint WTO complaint. Case DS431 was lodged in March 2012, the panel ruled against China in March 2014, the Appellate Body upheld it in August 2014, and China formally removed the offending export quotas in May 2015. The West won the case and lost the industry. By the time the ink was dry on the ruling, Molycorp — which had IPO’d in 2010 riding the price spike — had gone bankrupt. Prices collapsed on cue. Everyone went back to sleep. Hennigh described this cycle to me almost verbatim: China squeezes, prices spike, Western capital rushes in, China floods the market, prices crater, Western capital dies, and the cycle resets. It has happened twice already. April 2025’s export controls on samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium — imposed in retaliation for Trump’s tariff hike — are the third act. This time we cannot afford to fall for it again.

The Argument the Doom-Loop Narrative Keeps Missing: Brownfield Beats Greenfield

Here is where I want to break from the standard commentary, because the standard commentary is wrong. Every op-ed you read about rare earths ends with some variant of “the West is fifteen to twenty years behind and cannot catch up.” That is nonsense. It rests on the assumption that the West is starting from a standing start, and we are not.

America and Japan are not building this industry from scratch. They are turning it back on.

The science is ours. Spedding, Peppard, Weaver — American national laboratories, American publications, American blueprints. The plant chemistry is not proprietary Chinese magic; it is 1950s-and-60s American solvent extraction that has been continuously running at Nippon Yttrium in Japan, at Silmet in Estonia (which Neo Performance Materials inherited from the Molycorp wreckage), and at Mountain Pass itself for decades. The magnet technology is Sumitomo’s and GM’s — Hitachi Metals, now rebranded Proterial, still holds more than 600 NdFeB patents and litigates them aggressively. The deposits are on our side too: Mountain Pass is a producing. Brazil sits on what Hennigh called “the mother of all ionic clay deposits” at Poços de Caldas — probably bigger than anything in China, with cleaner chemistry.

What we lost was not the knowledge. It was the will. And the will is coming back at a speed that would have been unthinkable in 2020.

Look at what has actually happened in the last eighteen months:

· The US Department of Defense took a roughly 15 percent equity stake in MP Materials in July 2025, guaranteed a $110/kg NdPr price floor for a decade, and committed to buy 100 percent of the output from a new 7,000-tonne-per-year magnet plant for its first ten years. $400 million in preferred equity plus a $150 million loan. Apple followed with $500 million prepaid against recycled-magnet supply. JPMorgan and Goldman put in roughly a billion more in commercial financing.

· USA Rare Earth acquired the British metals-and-alloys company Less Common Metals for around $220 million in a deal that closed in November 2025. LCM, based in Ellesmere Port, is described by its own management as the only ex-China producer of scaled samarium, samarium-cobalt, and NdPr metal and alloy — precisely the layer of the value chain that everyone else is still trying to build. USAR now runs mine (Round Top, Texas), metal and alloy (Ellesmere Port), and is commissioning a magnet plant in Stillwater, Oklahoma targeting 10,000 tonnes a year.

· Lynas signed a binding $137 million offtake with the DoD at a $110/kg price floor in March 2026, and now has upwards of $258 million in DoD support for its Texas heavy-rare-earth facility, on top of the mature Mount Weld — Kalgoorlie — Malaysia chain that already produces most of the non-Chinese light rare earths on Earth.

· Arafura took its Nolans project to FID in May 2026 with roughly $1.2 to $1.6 billion of stapled financing from Australian, Korean, German, Canadian, and US government sources plus offtakes with Hyundai/Kia and Siemens Gamesa.

· Iluka is deep into construction on Eneabba, backed by an A$1.65 billion non-recourse loan from the Australian Government.

· Neo Performance Materials inaugurated Europe’s largest rare-earth magnet plant at Narva, Estonia in September 2025 — 1,000 tonnes ramping to 5,000, roughly 10 percent of European demand, on the site of the old Silmet separation plant that traces its lineage straight back to Molycorp.

That is not a “starting from scratch” list. That is production, expansion, and offtake. It is exactly what Hennigh said we needed to do — stop chasing novel flowsheets, take the old blueprints out of grandpa’s drawer, back the deposits that actually work, and build. And it is happening.

Hennigh’s own timeline for full ex-China supply from a standing start was five years — two to build the plant, three to run the separation circuit end-to-end. But we are not standing still. MP Materials is already producing separated oxide. Lynas is already producing separated oxide. Energy Fuels is producing roughly 1,049 tonnes a year of NdPr from White Mesa in Utah. Neo Performance is producing magnets in Estonia. USAR has metals and alloys in the UK. Meteoric commissioned its pilot in December 2025 and is targeting FID in late 2026. This is not a five-year build from zero. It is a three-to-five-year integration and scale-up on assets that already exist, backed by government offtakes that solve the price-crash problem that killed Molycorp.

That is the whole argument. Second-mover advantages — access to the means of production, trusted partnerships, deep capital markets, existing miners and refineries — and apply it specifically to rare earths, and the case is even stronger. We just have to stop losing on purpose.

The Companies Worth Watching

A quick lay of the land. This is not a stock tip sheet. It is a list of the operators who have been doing this seriously for at least a decade — or who have just made moves significant enough to earn a seat at the table.

North American Mining and Processing

MP Materials (NYSE: MP) — Mountain Pass, California. The only US mine currently producing separated rare-earth oxide at commercial scale. Building the country’s first fully integrated mine-to-magnet chain with the “Independence” magnet facility in Fort Worth. DoD is a preferred-equity holder with a $110/kg NdPr floor for ten years. Apple has prepaid $500 million against recycled-magnet supply. This is the anchor asset of the entire American rare-earth strategy.

USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ: USAR) — Round Top, Texas (heavy REE deposit) plus Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet plant, plus Less Common Metals in Ellesmere Port, UK (metals and alloys). The November 2025 LCM acquisition is arguably the single most strategically important move of the cycle — it plugs the samarium and NdPr metal/alloy gap that nobody else has closed. If they execute Stillwater commissioning through 2026, USAR becomes the first fully vertically integrated non-Chinese heavy-REE mine-to-magnet operator.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) — Mount Weld, WA / Kalgoorlie / Malaysia / Seadrift, Texas. The most mature non-Chinese integrated producer on Earth. Ten-plus years of operating experience. JOGMEC-backed on the Japan side, DoD-backed on the US side. Building heavy-REE separation in Texas with $258 million of DoD support and a $137 million binding offtake at a $110/kg floor. The single most important company in this story.

Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU) — White Mesa Mill, Utah. Repurposed a legacy uranium mill into an operating rare-earth separation facility processing monazite. Currently producing over a thousand tonnes a year of NdPr oxide with heavy-REE expansion planned for 2027. A live example of brownfield beating greenfield.

Ucore Rare Metals (TSX-V: UCU) — Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex. Commercialising its RapidSX technology with $22.4 million of DoD support. First “early production” targeted for late 2026. Worth watching if only to see whether the “novel flowsheet” argument Hennigh warns against can beat conventional solvent extraction on cost — I remain sceptical, but the DoD money speaks.

Rare Element Resources (OTCQB: REEMF) — Bear Lodge, Wyoming, plus Upton demonstration plant. Majority-owned by General Atomics’ Synchron affiliate. DOE-funded demonstration plant operational in early 2026, $553 million EXIM Letter of Interest for commercial-scale build-out.

NioCorp (NASDAQ: NB) — Elk Creek, Nebraska. Not a pure REE play — the primary economics are niobium and scandium — but a strategic-metals project with Pentagon Title III backing and a scandium-aluminium alloy partnership with Lockheed’s Skunk Works for fighter airframes.

HyProMag / Mkango Resources (AIM/TSX-V: MKA) — Birmingham, UK / Pforzheim, Germany / Dallas–Fort Worth, USA. The purest brownfield play in the industry. Uses the Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) technology developed at the University of Birmingham to strip rare-earth magnet powder out of end-of-life hard drives, EV motors, wind turbines, and MRI machines. The Tyseley Energy Park plant opened in January 2026 as the first commercial rare-earth magnet production in Britain in 25 years, running at 100 tpa and scaling to ~300 tpa. A German sister plant is commissioned, a Texas facility is targeting H2 2027, and Siemens has already integrated recycled magnets into a SIMOTICS servomotor. No mine, no separation plant, no ionic-clay geology — just recovering material that already exists. Exactly the model Apple’s MP Materials deal is validating at scale.

Critical Metals Corp / Tanbreez

Critical Metals Corp (NASDAQ: CRML) — Tanbreez, southern Greenland. One of the largest rare-earth deposits on Earth by tonnage, and — critically — a eudialyte-hosted deposit with roughly 27–28% heavy rare earths in the basket and low uranium/thorium levels that sit below Greenland’s 100 ppm regulatory threshold, avoiding the legal wall that has stalled the neighbouring Kvanefjeld project. Critical Metals secured a non-binding $120 million Letter of Interest from the US Export-Import Bank in early 2025 and has moved into resource expansion and permitting, with first production targeted by 2026–2027. Strategically positioned inside the Trump administration’s Greenland-focused critical-minerals push, and one of the few Western deposits with genuinely heavy-REE-rich, radiogenically-clean chemistry outside the Brazilian ionic-clay complex.

Brownfield Ionic Clay: Brazil

Meteoric Resources (ASX: MEI) — Caldeira Project. The Brazilian ionic-clay deposit with 1.6 billion tonnes of resource. DFS complete mid-2026, pilot plant running since December 2025, non-binding offtakes with POSCO International, Neo Performance Materials, and Ucore. If governments are serious, this is the deposit they should be building offtake around.

Viridis Mining and Minerals (ASX: VMM) — Colossus, adjacent to Meteoric’s Caldeira. Processing facility launched May 2026, explicit strategy of selling only to Western buyers. $360-400 million project targeting steady production by end of 2028.

Aclara Resources (TSX: ARA) — Penco Module in Chile plus Carina in Brazil. Environmental approval cleared June 2026. Combined potential of roughly 12 percent of China’s official 2024 heavy-REE output.

Rainbow Rare Earths (LSE: RBW) — Uberaba, Brazil. An elegant unconventional feedstock: phosphogypsum stacks left over from fertiliser production, in JV with Mosaic. PEA complete February 2026, DFS targeted late 2026, potential 1,900 tonnes of NdPr plus 600 tonnes of a samarium-europium-gadolinium product per year from tailings.

The Australian Contingent

Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) — Eneabba refinery, WA. A monazite-fed refinery under construction with an A$1.65 billion non-recourse Australian government loan — the largest single sovereign commitment to a Western rare-earth project. Traditional mineral-sands producer pivoting into REE separation.

Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU) — Nolans, Northern Territory. Reached FID in May 2026 with roughly $1.2-1.6 billion of financing stapled from Australian, Korean, German, Canadian, and US government sources. Binding offtakes with Hyundai/Kia and Siemens Gamesa. One of the most broadly financed non-Chinese REE projects ever.

Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) — Browns Range, WA. Xenotime with some of the highest dysprosium and terbium grades outside China. FFS completed September 2025, roughly 8 percent of global Dy/Tb demand at full production. Included in the US EXIM Bank’s $2.2 billion Australian critical-minerals package.

The Japanese Refiners and Downstream

JOGMEC — Japan’s state critical-minerals vehicle. Co-founder of Japan Australia Rare Earths, primary backer of Lynas, funder of overseas ionic-clay exploration for over a decade. The template for how a Western government should behave.

Santoku Corporation — Now part of Hitachi Metals / Proterial. Pioneered molten-salt electrolysis of rare earths and patented the Strip Casting process that is now the world standard for NdFeB alloy. Also developed a solvent-extraction route for europium in the 1960s. Decades of continuous operating experience.

Hitachi Metals / Proterial — Holds 600-plus NdFeB magnet patents worldwide including Sumitomo Special Metals’ original 1982 co-invention. Enforces them. Licenses TDK. The IP backbone of the non-Chinese magnet industry.

Nippon Yttrium — The Kyushu separation plant. Small, quiet, still running. Exactly the kind of operator memory we need to redeploy at scale.

Europe

Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO) — Silmet separation plant in Estonia plus the newly inaugurated Narva magnet plant, Europe’s largest. Direct corporate lineage back through Molycorp to the original Magnequench technology. €187 million of EU funding, customer commitments from Schaeffler and Bosch.

Less Common Metals — Ellesmere Port, UK, now owned by USA Rare Earths. Covered above.

Stop Managing the Decline. Start Rebuilding the Industry.

The industry our father’s generation built is being rebuilt by ours, in real time, and it is happening much faster than the doom-loop press wants to admit. Not because anyone had a sudden ideological conversion. Because China overplayed its hand in April 2025 and finally made the strategic argument un-ignorable, and because a critical mass of capital — sovereign, defence, and commercial — decided at the same time to stop losing on purpose.

The playbook is not complicated. Back the deposits that actually work — Mountain Pass, Poços de Caldas ionic clays, Mount Weld, Eneabba, Nolans. Restart the old American solvent-extraction chemistry at scale rather. Buy or bolt on the metals-and-alloys layer aggressively, as USAR just did with LCM. Preserve and expand Japan’s operator memory. Guarantee offtake and price floors so the next Chinese flood does not kill the industry the way it killed Molycorp in 2015. Recycle magnets — Apple’s MP and Hypromag are the template. And stop, for the love of God, selling any more American strategic plants and technology to the Chinese.

Three to five years is not decades. It is the length of a normal capex cycle. It is less than the time between iPhone hardware refreshes. It is entirely doable, because it does not require inventing anything new. It requires remembering what we already knew, developing the assets we already own, and executing with the commercial discipline I argued in China’s Vision of Victory and the West’s Industrial Revival.

China in 75 years into a well 100 year plan to be the dominant global superpower, and they realized that controlling the inputs of production was the key to that plan. The West has the technology the inputs and the industrial ecosystems, we just forgot they were important. The West does not need a 100 years. We need three to five, at least for rare earths, and we are already two years in. Then we need to do what we are doing with rare earths for every critical mineral on the Periodic Table.